It’s a game of inches. The defense bends but doesn’t break. It’s a game of two halves. We‘re going to take it one game at a time. Football clichés – love ‘em or hate ‘em, they are woven into the fabric of the game (another cliché) by players, coaches and announcers. And when it comes to cliché accuracy, I’ll always lean on the tried and true, defense wins championships. But in today’s NFL that comes with one caveat; as long as you have a way to eat up the clock on offense too. And that’s why the 49ers will take home their sixth Lombardi trophy this Sunday – great defense and a great running game.
The goal of clock control is to keep the ball out of your opponent’s hands, and when the opponent is the Chief’s Patrick Mahomes, it’s all the more important. If Mahomes isn’t slinging it around on the field because he’s sitting on the bench, you have a chance to win. Grinding it out on the ground and dominating the clock, which San Francisco is tremendous at and did it this season to the tune of 154 rushing yards per game, will be the difference-maker in Super Bowl LIV. Oh, in case you doubt the 49ers ability to ground and pound, they upped their rushing average to 235.5 yards per game in their two playoff wins this year. That’s clock control at its best.
Now to the defensive side things. While it is unquestioned that Patrick Mahomes is an elite quarterback, and well on his way to a spot in Canton, he hasn’t faced the likes of Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead. The 49ers D allowed just 30 points total in two playoff wins over Minnesota and Green Bay – with the most recent win coming against Aaron Rodgers, who is unquestionably heading to Canton as well. The rush of the San Francisco front four is relentless (and fast), and will put Mahomes’ scrambling ability to the test. As great as Mahomes is, look for a couple of turnovers to go the 49ers way due to the pressure.
The game will ultimately come down to the Chiefs offense vs. the 49ers defense, and I’ll still go with the cliché, defense wins championships. If you need an example of a great defense shutting down a great offense, look no further than last year’s Super Bowl, where Bill Belichick and the Patriots put the clamps on the Rams’ number one ranked offense to the tune of just three points. Need more convincing? CBS Sports ran a Madden Super Bowl simulation of the upcoming game. In it the 49ers picked off Mahomes not once, not twice, but three times en route to a 20-7 victory. Who am I to doubt Madden? 49ers – 31, Chiefs – 28.
Looking at the NFL odds: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nfl/odds/
