Reverse Barometer: A Big Season Finale
Good news for you Eagles fans out there – Reverse Barometer is calling a Cowboys win on Sunday and a return to the playoffs. Yes, it’s the kiss of death; those familiar with the Barometer calls over the years surely know.
Why in the world I pick them? Philadelphia is favored by 6.5 points, a number that ballooned up when news that Tony Romo may not play. The Cowboys are notorious for season-ending disasters. A win means they get a playoffs participation ribbon (Wade would be so proud). A loss means they stay home. Again.
Barometer says, “ribbons for everyone.” And here are a few reasons why:
The Team Rally: Romo is out. He had surgery on Friday morning and is out for the rest of the season. Kyle Orton will be playing quarterback. While that might not comfort many Cowboys fans who watched Orton (and his neck beard) toil for the Bears and Broncos (and lose more than win), remember that there are 21 other starters for the Cowboys that will be laying it all out on the field Sunday night, and more coming in off the bench.
I’ve seen it too many times – a top player is out and things look grim on paper. Games aren’t played on paper. The rest of the team steps up their game. I see it as a reverse of over-confidence; the team plays hard. Every play. It’s actually a coach’s dream. And Jason Garrett needs all the help he can get these days. Yes, he’ll even take your call, Jon Kitna.
The Due Theory: The Barometer is a big believer in the Due Theory. Whenever in Vegas, if I spot a roulette wheel that has a run of consecutive numbers toward one color on the board, I’ll slide a few chips toward the other color on the next spin, despite the straight-up odds of close to 50/50 that my color will come up. The progressive odds say that my color is due and I believe in the raw numbers of probability. Don’t agree with me? Click here and watch this.
I’ve won more than I’ve lost (at least on that move; don’t ask me about six-team football teasers though).
The Cowboys are due. The last two season finales have been “win or go home” scenarios for Dallas and they are 0-2 in them. They’re due to play well, and get some breaks. And let’s not get started on how they are due for a good December.
Then again, the Cowboys are also due for a NFC East Division loss in 2013. Meh, we’ll just ignore that part.
Stats Don’t Lie: The Eagles are ranked second in the NFL in total offense while the Cowboys are dead-last in total defense. Dallas has played eight of the top nine offensive teams in the league and is a combined 3-8 (including 1-5 vs. the top six offenses in the NFL). That one win vs. the top six – at Philly on October 20, 17-3. The three points were the fewest Dallas gave up all year while it was the Eagles’ lowest point output of the season.
Philly is 6-1 over its last seven games, averaging 34.6 points while giving up 21.3 in that span. The Cowboys? Well, they’re 4-3 in their last seven contests and 6-4 over their last 10. Sounds like a .500 team to me.
Okay, scratch the stats argument. All of those add up to an Eagles’ win – big. The only stat that matters is that the Cowboys are 1-0 vs. Philadelphia where it counts – the standings. Maybe the due theory comes in here but honestly, it’s more of what Bill Parcells used to say – “You are what you are.”
Cowboys 27, Eagles 24. That means take Philly and give the points.
Man, my kids are tired of me cursing at the television.